Asset Allocation

We acknowledge that several tail risks have receded over the past few weeks, bringing relief to financial markets.

Our asset allocation has turned more cautious as several risks have started to materialise.

Es la vuelta al cole y el período de las decisiones de inversión... ¿

One and a half years after the US Federal Reserve bank began its tightening course, the US economy continues...

¿Alguna vez se ha preguntado qué hacer con la asignación de su cartera? ¿mantenerla durante las subidas y bajadas del mercado, o reequilibrarla? ¿Cuándo exactamente? ¿Cuál es el equilibrio adecuado? Nuestro equipo de Quant expone su punto de vista en este estudio.

The markets appear to be having second thoughts on the “terminal rate” of several central banks in developed markets, as their restrictive job is likely not finished yet.

A medida que nos acercamos a mitad del año, parece que se puede evitar la recesión en ambos lados del Atlántico, pero las previsiones de crecimiento siguen siendo débiles...

Financial markets have been resilient in H1 2023, reflecting a better growth/inflation mix than expected by consensus at the start of the year.

In our economic and market scenarios, the next stage points to lower growth and gradually lower inflation in the US by the end of 2024. Consequently, lower interest rates should follow, and we keep a long duration bias in fixed income.

With the upcoming 2023 Turkish presidential election, scheduled to take place on 14 May, we are sharing our views and sentiments on the possible outcomes and their consequences.

Our main scenario incorporates slow growth, both in the US and eurozone, and continues to remain the most likely.

El endurecimiento monetario de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos (Fed) en los últimos doce meses, único en su género, ha generado vulnerabilidades financieras.

Uncertainties on US and European financials have replaced the better economic growth outlook in investor’s minds. Suddenly, the improvement in activity is now mitigated by financial vulnerabilities and inflation stickiness.

Portfolios managed by Candriam have no exposure to any Credit Suisse security, OTC exposure or stock-lending exposure.

The better outlook on the growth/inflation mix for the year ahead has quickly been incorporated by risky assets, from equities to high yield via credit markets. As the extreme investor pessimism of last October is now in the distant past, we are reducing our overall equity allocation to a more neutral stance.

We have started 2023 with a preference for equities over bonds, as our investment strategy turned more constructive on attractive price levels in October.

We end 2022 with a preference for equities over bonds, as our investment strategy became more constructive on attractive price levels at the start of the fourth quarter.

In October, we turned more constructive based on our analysis of the market configuration. This month, fundamental support provides further reasons to maintain this stance.

Si la sonrisa mide cómo reacciona el valor de la cartera a los cambios en los mercados subyacentes, tal vez deberíamos medir la sonrisa, y esto es lo que nuestro equipo de inversión ha estado haciendo.

Short-term interest rates have been rising around the world over the past year as central banks attempt to fight inflation.

While inflation continues to surprise to the upside, growth dynamics have turned and continue to decelerate. Growth concerns are mainly affecting Europe, as energy prices remain an important inflation driver, while central banks are stepping up their tightening.

Despite this wealth of information – or perhaps because of too much information? – maybe you are still uncertain.  We can help you organize and develop your views, in a 20-minute video. Our economists and strategists will try to clarify the economic and financial risks.

As 2022 opened, we all thought of Covid, war, oil prices, transient inflation... What do you see on the horizon now? Wheat supply crisis? Quantitative tightening? Sustained inflation?

This year’s European summer heatwave and drought has the potential to worsen the current energy crisis, as river water levels have dropped significantly.

Ahora que hemos llegado a mitad de año, las previsiones de crecimiento mundial siguen revisándose a la baja y los obstáculos siguen siendo notorios...