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Coffee Break

Coffee Break

All eyes will be on the OPEC+ output decisions and the EU's sanctions on Russian oil amidst an uncertain outlook for demand. Fluctuations in energy prices remain an important driver of consumer inflation.
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Coffee Break

As we enter the final month of the year, a rich combination of data stemming from the US labour-market, euro zone inflation and key flash GDP growth rate is expected. The data should contribute to investors’ assessment of the global economy.
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Coffee Break

Activity and sentiment-related data will be in the spotlight with the release of key countries’ flash PMI for the manufacturing and services activities as well as the EU consumer sentiment indicator.
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Coffee Break

The UK will publish new details of its budget, i.e. the country’s medium-term fiscal plan. Unlike the so-called mini-budget that sent UK financial markets into turmoil last September, it will be accompanied by an independent forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility.
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Coffee Break

The COP27 will continue with world leaders meeting in Egypt at this year’s UN climate summit. The objective is to discuss action to tackle climate change.
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Coffee Break

In the US, the Federal Reserve meeting will provide the new interest rates decision. After some less hawkish stances from the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, the next FOMC will be scrutinized for any less hawkish moves that could be interpreted as a possible future pivot by the Fed.
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Coffee Break

Global growth and inflation data will be in the spotlight - as usual - with the publication of Q3 GDP and flash PMIs in the US and Europe, the PCE for the former and October CPIs for the latter.
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Coffee Break

Investors will increasingly focus on the Q3 earnings season. We expect releases from Netflix, IBM, Tesla, Bank of America, and Johnson & Johnson, among the bellwether names.
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Coffee Break

Inflation will be in focus with the publication of data stemming from the US, the euro zone, Japan and China, highlighting the divergent stages of monetary policy tightening the countries are dealing with. The Bank of Japan is currently the only one bucking the trend.
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Coffee Break

The US job report for September is expected to be around 250k creations. Investors are looking for signs of softness in the economy that could ease ongoing inflationary pressures.
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Coffee Break

Italy starts the week with a new right-wing government to build. Having won a majority of the vote, the far-right Fratelli d’Italia party, led by Giorgia Meloni, will lead the coalition talks. It may be a political shift for a pivotal European country.
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Coffee Break

Central banks will be in the focus. In the US, the FOMC will decide on an additional policy tightening. Another 75bp rate hike in its funds rate is expected. Also, the publication of its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections will shed light on the future path of its monetary policy.
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Coffee Break

Inflation data will be in focus in the US and some European countries. It will be the last published US CPI and household’s expectations before the September Fed’s meeting on September 21st.
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Coffee Break

Europe will be the first in focus with the announcement of the new leader of the Tory party in the UK. The Queen will officially appoint the designated successor to Boris Johnson. Polls are in favour of Liz Truss.
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Coffee Break

Markets will digest central bankers’ rather hawkish comments made in Jackson Hole. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy will need to be restrictive for “some time”, warning that history “cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy”.
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Coffee Break

This year’s Jackson Hole Symposium comes at a critical juncture for monetary policy as inflation is at a four-decade high and the Fed is implementing the sharpest tightening since the Paul Volcker’s era.
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Coffee Break

The markets will look at the next FOMC minutes. The Fed, which, decided to adopt a hawkish stance last month could announce an increase of fund rates.
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Coffee Break

Inflation will be in focus. Key markets, such as the US, China, Japan and some European countries will release either CPI, PPI or inflation figures.
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Coffee Break

Italy will also be under the spotlight in the coming weeks with the election of a new government. Italian political instability will be a hurdle to EU financial support.
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Coffee Break

The focus will be on the European Central Bank’s tolerance to Italy’s widening yield premium. The central bank has disclosed a new ECB’s Anti-Crisis Tool: the “Transmission Protection Instrument”. The statement is vague enough to leave a question mark over whether Italy can meet the conditions.
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Coffee Break

All eyes will be on the reopening (or not) following the shutdown of the Nord Stream pipeline for a scheduled 10-day maintenance period. The gas pipeline connects Russia to Germany and supplies most of the European Union. The EU is looking into alternatives but may need to brace itself for a winter of limited - and expensive - gas supply.
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Coffee Break

Investors expect soft data releases in the Euro Area and Germany with the ZEW economic sentiment for July. The index had shown a slight deterioration last month and was already in deeply negative territory, as pessimistic analysts outnumbered optimistic ones.
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Coffee Break

Final June PMI for key countries are due for publication. In the US, last week’s Manufacturing ISM data revealed shrinking orders as consumer spending is slowing down and inventories are piling up.
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Coffee Break

As Central banks are tightening into an economic slowdown any growth outlook-related data on supply and demand will be relevant. In the US, investors will scrutinize supply-related ISM, durable goods and inventory data, on the demand side, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence, as well as personal income and spending.
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Coffee Break

Investors will watch the releases of home sales and preliminary PMI surveys figures in the US, following last week's stream of soft data in retail sales, the Philadelphia Fed survey, housing starts and building permits. All these milestones will be key to assess the spreading of the slowdown to other parts of the economy.

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