Coffee break

While financial vulnerability is the main focus for investors, inflation data releases in the US, the euro zone and Japan will be carefully watched.

The US Federal Reserve bank will hold its FOMC meeting followed by a press conference. Investors are eager to find out how the stress on US banks and its potential filtering through the real economy will impact its policy.

The ECB will publish its new set of economic forecasts, likely raising rates by 50bp and holding the usual subsequent press conference. Investors will look for insights on the monetary policy path beyond March.

In the US, Fed chair Jerome Powell will testify on the US central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress.

Along with the monthly job report, markets will continue to digest stronger than initially reported inflation data and watch for US consumer confidence indicators.

Friday will mark the one-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

The US CPI report, retail sales, industrial production data and the mortgage index will be among the key highlights, as the US Federal Reserve is engineering a landing of the economy.

The UK will publish a series of estimated data on its GDP, and final ones on its trade balance, manufacturing production, investment, and construction 3 years after the UK’s departure from the EU.

The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England are meeting for policy decisions. The focus will increasingly turn to the pace of the upcoming hikes.

The Chinese New Year celebration starts. The event is a highlight in the domestic economy, with mass travels and a consumption boost, as the Covid-19 restrictions have been lifted.

US and China will release their estimate of the Q4 GDP growth rate while key countries will release PPI and CPI figures.

Both the US CPI and the real estate market index will help assess the next US Federal Reserve Bank’s move. While there is a growing strain on home affordability keeping prospective homebuyers out of the market, consumer price inflation has yet to converge towards the Fed’s expectations.

OPEC+ decided to leave its output policy unchanged. Oil production targets will remain the same as oil markets were still assessing the impact of the Chinese demand. Meanwhile G7 nations and Australia agreed to a $60/Bbbl price cap on Russian oil. Russia may cut its oil production in response, President Vladimir Putin said.

OPEC+ decided to leave its output policy unchanged. Oil production targets will remain the same as oil markets were still assessing the impact of the Chinese demand. Meanwhile G7 nations and Australia agreed to a $60/Bbbl price cap on Russian oil. Russia may cut its oil production in response, President Vladimir Putin said.

All eyes will be on the OPEC+ output decisions and the EU's sanctions on Russian oil amidst an uncertain outlook for demand. Fluctuations in energy prices remain an important driver of consumer inflation.

As we enter the final month of the year, a rich combination of data stemming from the US labour-market, euro zone inflation and key flash GDP growth rate is expected. The data should contribute to investors’ assessment of the global economy.

Activity and sentiment-related data will be in the spotlight with the release of key countries’ flash PMI for the manufacturing and services activities as well as the EU consumer sentiment indicator.

The UK will publish new details of its budget, i.e. the country’s medium-term fiscal plan. Unlike the so-called mini-budget that sent UK financial markets into turmoil last September, it will be accompanied by an independent forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

The COP27 will continue with world leaders meeting in Egypt at this year’s UN climate summit. The objective is to discuss action to tackle climate change.

In the US, the Federal Reserve meeting will provide the new interest rates decision. After some less hawkish stances from the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, the next FOMC will be scrutinized for any less hawkish moves that could be interpreted as a possible future pivot by the Fed.

Global growth and inflation data will be in the spotlight - as usual - with the publication of Q3 GDP and flash PMIs in the US and Europe, the PCE for the former and October CPIs for the latter.

Investors will increasingly focus on the Q3 earnings season. We expect releases from Netflix, IBM, Tesla, Bank of America, and Johnson & Johnson, among the bellwether names.

Inflation will be in focus with the publication of data stemming from the US, the euro zone, Japan and China, highlighting the divergent stages of monetary policy tightening the countries are dealing with. The Bank of Japan is currently the only one bucking the trend.

The US job report for September is expected to be around 250k creations. Investors are looking for signs of softness in the economy that could ease ongoing inflationary pressures.

Italy starts the week with a new right-wing government to build. Having won a majority of the vote, the far-right Fratelli d’Italia party, led by Giorgia Meloni, will lead the coalition talks. It may be a political shift for a pivotal European country.