September was characterised by resilient global economic activity, persistent inflationary pressures and increasing concerns over monetary tightening and geopolitical risks. In the United States, economic momentum remained robust, supported by AI-related investment and resilient consumption, despite signs of labour market moderation. In Europe, economic indicators continued to improve, with manufacturing and services PMIs signalling greater resilience. The ECB maintained a cautious stance, balancing inflationary risks against modest growth and increasingly challenging sovereign financing conditions. France’s fiscal outlook attracted particular scrutiny, contributing to significant sovereign spread widening. Meanwhile, China’s economy continued to lose momentum, constrained by weak domestic consumption and persistent property-sector difficulties, prompting additional targeted policy support.
Financial markets experienced a challenging September as rising government bond yields, elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on risk appetite. Global equities declined, with European equities underperforming significantly. US equities proved comparatively resilient, supported by technology and AI-related companies. European equities faced pressure from higher discount rates, energy costs and sovereign risk, while sector dispersion increased substantially.
Fixed-income markets were particularly affected by renewed inflation concerns and expectations of tighter monetary policy. US Treasury yields climbed towards multi-decade highs, while European sovereign bonds experienced additional pressure from fiscal uncertainty. French government bond spreads against German Bunds widened sharply, raising concerns about potential contagion across peripheral sovereign markets. Credit markets also faced increasing pressure from higher financing costs and deteriorating risk sentiment.
The HFRX Global Hedge Fund EUR Index was down 0.60% over the month.[1]
L/S Equity
Long/Short Equity strategies experienced a challenging September, with performance affected by declining equity markets, rising bond yields and significant sector dispersion. Returns were widely dispersed, with hedge fund indices averaging negative low single-digit returns, while market-neutral strategies generally outperformed, benefiting from short book protection and reduced directional market exposure. Market leadership remained concentrated in technology and AI-related companies, while traditional cyclicals and interest-rate-sensitive sectors struggled. Hedge funds selectively increased US technology exposure, particularly in AI infrastructure and agentic applications, while reducing European industrials and Asian equities. Looking ahead, greater dispersion and improving earnings differentiation could support fundamental stock selection, although elevated valuations and interest-rate volatility remain important risks.
Global Macro
Global Macro strategies were among September’s strongest performers, benefiting from pronounced trends across interest rates, currencies and commodities. Rising government bond yields following the Federal Reserve’s September rate increase provided opportunities for managers positioned for monetary tightening. Long energy exposures benefited from elevated oil prices and Middle East supply disruptions, while US dollar appreciation supported directional currency positions. In Europe, widening sovereign spreads, particularly in France, created additional relative value opportunities. Positioning generally favoured higher yields and commodity strength, although individual managers’ exposures varied. Looking ahead, persistent inflation, divergent monetary policies and geopolitical uncertainty should sustain opportunities for tactical macro positioning.
Quant Strategies
Quantitative strategies demonstrated relative resilience in September, outperforming discretionary equity approaches despite considerable factor volatility. Momentum exposures recovered during the month, supported by systematic repositioning and improving factor performance following earlier drawdowns. However, significant dispersion between growth, value and sector exposures created a challenging environment for some directional models. Market-neutral strategies benefited from stock-level differentiation, while systematic macro models captured trends in commodities, currencies and interest rates. Quantitative managers maintained substantial gross exposure, with increased momentum positioning. Looking ahead, continued dispersion should favour diversified statistical arbitrage approaches, although abrupt factor reversals remain a key risk.
Fixed Income
Fixed-Income Arbitrage strategies faced a difficult September as sharp increases in government bond yields, elevated volatility and changing central bank expectations disrupted traditional relative value relationships. US Treasury yields rose substantially, while European sovereign markets experienced additional stress from French fiscal concerns and widening peripheral spreads. These developments challenged leveraged convergence trades, particularly where yield curve movements and sovereign spread relationships deviated from historical patterns. The HFRX Relative Value Index declined 1.21%[2]. Relative value opportunities emerged across sovereign curves, swap spreads and European government bonds. Looking ahead, market dislocations may create compelling entry points, provided funding conditions remain stable and sovereign risks become more contained.
Event-Driven
Event-Driven strategies had a challenging month of September delivering negative returns over the period, as higher financing costs and weaker equity markets weighed on merger arbitrage and special situations. Increased market volatility and higher discount rates affected deal valuations and risk appetite, while geopolitical uncertainty complicated transaction execution. Nevertheless, corporate activity remained supportive of selective opportunities, particularly in restructuring, shareholder activism and strategic acquisitions. Looking ahead, continued corporate restructuring and potential consolidation may support deal flow, although financing conditions, regulatory uncertainty and transaction specific risks warrant selectivity.
Credit Arbitrage
Credit Arbitrage strategies faced an increasingly challenging environment in September as rising government bond yields, tighter financial conditions and geopolitical uncertainty affected corporate credit valuations. Higher financing costs and increased volatility weighed on leveraged relative value positions, while investor concerns about refinancing risks and credit fundamentals created greater differentiation between issuers. Performance was heterogeneous, with distressed and highly leveraged exposures particularly vulnerable. European credit markets also faced potential spillovers from French sovereign spread widening. Nevertheless, dislocations across investment-grade, high-yield and capital-structure instruments created opportunities for selective relative value positioning. Going forward, persistent yield volatility and greater issuer dispersion may favour fundamentally driven credit arbitrage, although leverage, liquidity and refinancing risks remain important considerations.
[1] Source : HFRX October 2026
[2] Source : HFRX October 2026
