Markets will digest the results of the first meeting in three years between Ukraine and Russia, who met in Istanbul.

The global economic cycle is not ending yet – it is reshaping. Following a volatile first quarter and trade escalation at the start of April, May 2025 shows de-escalation amid numerous trade tariff headlines.

After the hit to risky assets and even US Treasury bonds in the wake of the so-called “Liberation Day” announcement of a far higher tariff regime, some semblance of calm returned to markets.

Liberation Day was a shock for investors, causing a tremendous impact on financial markets. Hard-data economic indicators continue to hold up but are pointing to a deceleration.

La elección de Donald Trump, unida al control del Partido Republicano de ambas cámaras del Congreso, ha dado lugar a un nuevo panorama político en Estados Unidos. Qué decisiones clave debe tomar la nueva administración? ¿Qué impacto tendrán estas decisiones en el entorno macroeconómico, los mercados financieros y los inversores?

“Volatility” would be the key word to describe global markets in April, as the set of tariffs announced by President Trump were broader and more punitive than expected.

Los rendimientos europeos han vuelto a situarse en niveles históricos tras varios años de escaso rendimiento, mientras que la situación fiscal alemana está alcanzando un punto de inflexión. Los fundamentales justifican una mayor asignación a largo plazo a los bonos en euros, y un argumento a favor de la menor volatilidad relativa de los bonos en comparación con la renta variable.

The US consumer will be in the spotlight as retail sales figures alongside preliminary results from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey will be released. This will offer a window into American household spending behaviour and confidence.