Coffee break

Markets extended their winning streak in October, ushering in stocks’ historically strongest quarter — the most wonderful time of the year. Momentum tends to build gradually: a modest October, a livelier November, and a December that often decides how wonderful the season truly is.

The upcoming days will bring a flurry of top-down macro and bottom-up micro events, setting up the scene for the final weeks of 2025.

News that US President Donald Trump is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest to discuss ending the Russian war in Ukraine will be followed closely.

The earnings season for the third quarter of the year will traditionally start with US financial institutions, including JP Morgan Chase

Following the election of Shinjiro Koizumi as new LDP leader, the extraordinary Diet session to elect Japan's new prime minister will be scheduled swiftly.

As a US government shutdown is potentially just days away, focus is turning to the question of whether this will be a “short” or a “long” shutdown.

Manufacturing and services PMIs will offer a first look at September’s global activity. With the Fed easing and China’s economy stabilizing, any uptick could reinforce the reflation narrative and support risk assets.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its funds rate after having observed a pause since December 2024.

The ECB interest rate decision will be closely watched for how the bank balances inflation nearly at target with sluggish growth in the region.

Markets will be laser-focused on the US job report, representing one of the last major data releases ahead of the September FOMC.

Markets will be digesting the comments made by Central Bankers at the Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole.

Markets will be digesting the outcome of the US-Russia summit on Ukraine in Alaska and the follow-up meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders in Washington.

Markets are watching whether the US-China tariff pause, set to expire this week, will be extended — impacting sentiment and upcoming economic data interpretation.

In the US, key data releases will include factory orders, ISM services, trade balance, as well as Q2 productivity and labour costs — all unfolding under the shadow of new tariffs taking effect on August 7.

The United States and the European Union have reached a trade deal that introduces a 15% blanket tariff on all EU goods imported into the US, along with additional EU commitments to purchase US energy and defense products. The agreement takes effect on Friday.

Flash PMIs for the US, euro zone, UK, and Japan will reveal July’s global economic momentum in manufacturing and services. These data points will influence central bank expectations and investor risk appetite across regions.

Inflation will be a central focus for global investors, with key reports expected from the US, UK, Canada, and Japan. US inflation data is expected to show an acceleration in June.

After the big bill last week, markets will focused on big tariffs as little clarity has emerged on what will happen as the tariff deadline looms.

With US markets closed Friday for the July 4 holiday, the job report for June drops Thursday. Employment growth and wages will be critical for gauging economic momentum and shaping Fed expectations.

Flash PMI data for June will provide an early read on global manufacturing and services, highlighting growth momentum, inflation risks, and potential monetary policy shifts.

The Fed’s interest rate decision, economic projections, and press conference will guide market expectations on US monetary policy in H2.

Preliminary sentiment and inflation data from the US will offer fresh insight into the tariff impact on household confidence and ultimately the Fed’s policy path.

The ECB and Bank of Canada will both announce monetary policy decisions. The tone of President Lagarde’s press conference will be closely monitored for signals on how gradual or front-loaded the path of cuts may be reinforcing a synchronized easing among developed markets - except the Fed.

Markets will assess the fallout from Donald Trump’s tariff threats on the European Union. The move raises risks for global trade, inflation, and corporate margins.

Markets will digest the results of the first meeting in three years between Ukraine and Russia, who met in Istanbul.