The State of the Polarized Union

Explore el enfoque disciplinado de Candriam a la inversión en deuda corporativa. Descubra cómo el análisis de emisores, la integración de criterios ESG y la visibilidad de los riesgos contribuyen a capear la volatilidad y estructurar carteras de renta fija resilientes.

Global activity proved resilient into the new year as policy uncertainty around US trade eased from late-2025 peaks and the IMF nudged world growth forecasts modestly higher. Within the euro area, Q4 growth accelerated, but January PMIs were mixed – manufacturing stabilised while services softened, pointing to a slight loss of momentum at the start of 2026.

European equities have remained in positive territory since our last Equity Committee, benefiting from diversification outside the US and improved macro signals. GDP growth accelerated in the final quarter of 2025.

The major US equity indices have gone nowhere. Since the late-October peak in Technology, the S&P 500 has moved sideways, masking what has in fact been a decisive rotation. Energy has rallied more than 20%, Materials close to 20%, and Consumer Staples well into double digits. Technology, by contrast, is down roughly 11% over the same period.

We are moving to a neutral stance on US duration this month after our tactical long. While the macro backdrop remains broadly resilient, the balance of risks across the curve has shifted sufficiently to warrant a recalibration of our positioning.

La deuda de los mercados emergentes ha tratado bien a los inversores últimamente. Los bonos soberanos en divisas fuertes se han beneficiado de los elevados rendimientos de los cupones, la reducción de los diferenciales y algunas recuperaciones oportunas, mientras que los bonos corporativos han seguido un guión similar, en el que los bonos de alto rendimiento han sido los más beneficiados.

In the US, the delayed job report will be in the spotlight. Market consensus is expecting 70k job creations and a stable unemployment rate, at 4.4%.