Nicolas Forest
Chief Investment Officer
The replay of our very first Explore webinar is now available.
Here’s what you’ll hear about:
- CIO Perspective – One month into the conflict: key takeaways
- Macro Outlook – Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and potential economic fallout
- Equities – Looking beyond headlines to long-term convictions
- Emerging markets – Winners and losers
WATCH THE REPLAY
Key Takeaways in Q&A
Florence Pisani
Chief Economist
Johan Van Der Biest
Head of Thematic Global Equity
Paulo Salazar
Head of Emerging Markets Equity
Why is 'de-escalation' the key word for markets right now?
Markets continue to hover near highs despite the war in Iran, with equity indices and credit spreads signalling risk appetite. At the same time, long‑dated interest rates remain elevated due to higher inflation expectations. This mix—risk assets strong, rates high—shows investors are assuming de‑escalation and manageable economic spillovers, even as policy trade‑offs for central banks and governments become more complex.
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much?
Roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait. The halt in tanker traffic has lifted spot oil prices and raised concerns for LNG, with Qatar declaring force majeure on part of its capacity. Beyond energy, inputs such as naphtha, helium (for semiconductors), sulphur (fertilisers), and other industrial materials move through this route. Persistent disruption would reverberate across supply chains, including aviation and bunker fuels, and could slow goods shipping from Asia to Europe and the US.
Why do we remain constructive on AI and the broader tech ecosystem?
Hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) are committing exceptionally large CapEx budgets, which are flowing through the AI supply chain. Earnings momentum at key enablers (e.g., advanced memory and semiconductor names) has accelerated. Crucially, monetisation is improving—LLM developers such as Anthropic and OpenAI are starting to convert usage into meaningful revenues. Corporate AI adoption remains early: only a small share of firms have embedded AI across operations, leaving ample runway.
Why are we increasingly constructive on emerging market equities?
A structurally weaker US dollar over the medium term, rising use of non‑USD currencies in trade, and China’s role as a business partner are supportive. Valuations remain attractive versus developed markets, and inflows into EM are picking up. Energy’s strategic importance and the competitiveness of renewables at higher oil prices add further tailwinds for parts of EM.
How are we positioned in fixed income and credit today?
We see opportunity to add duration as long‑end yields approach multi‑year highs, but we are patient on timing given near‑term inflation and policy risks. In credit, we prefer investment grade—supported by solid fundamentals and attractive new‑issue concessions—while remaining cautious on high yield. In Europe especially, high‑quality IG offers yields around 4–5%, providing compelling carry with manageable cyclical risk
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Markets under pressure, convictions intact
In a recent Explore webinar, Candriam CIO Nicolas Forest, alongside Chief Economist Florence Pisani, Co-Global Head of Equity Management Johan Van der Biest and Head of Emerging Markets Equities Paulo Salazar, shared their views on the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure, the general feeling of the markets and explored the trends to be aware of across equities. -
Escalate. De-escalate. Repeat.
Financial markets have entered a regime where escalation and de-escalation are no longer discrete events, but part of a repeating pattern. The war in Iran has not evolved linearly; it has oscillated, with periods of intensity followed by temporary pauses, each feeding renewed uncertainty rather than resolution. -
Afrontar el ciclo crediticio
Si se le pide a un inversor de renta fija que describa el ciclo crediticio, la mayoría citará inmediatamente sus cuatro fases ya conocidas: reparación, recuperación, expansión y recesión. Conocer la terminología es sencillo. La pregunta más pertinente es: ¿por qué es importante para los resultados de una cartera?