September was characterised by resilient global economic activity, persistent inflationary pressures and increasing concerns over monetary tightening and geopolitical risks. In the United States, economic momentum remained robust, supported by AI-related investment and resilient consumption, despite signs of labour market moderation. In Europe, economic indicators continued to improve, with manufacturing and services PMIs signalling greater resilience.

The Fed has delivered a hike where investors just months ago expected cuts. Markets now anticipate further tightening through 2027, yet US equities remain higher this year. Earnings expectations have held up through the reversal in monetary expectations. The upcoming Q3 reporting season will show whether companies can deliver on them.

L’Europe est peut-être en train de mettre fin à sa dépendance vis-à-vis des énergies fossiles russes, mais l’autonomie énergétique ne sera pas atteinte uniquement en modifiant le mix énergétique. Elle nécessitera de disposer de réseaux plus solides, d’une capacité industrielle accrue et de chaînes d’approvisionnement en matières premières essentielles plus résilientes.

We retain a modest duration overweight in the two-to-five-year segment after September's sharp sell-off. Higher real yields have made valuations more appealing, but we keep conviction limited. Our strongest argument remains monetary policy: markets discount a terminal Fed rate around 4.75% , leaving room for a less extensive tightening cycle to support shorter maturities.

After a period in which strong earnings helped equities absorb rising interest rates, higher bond yields have begun to weigh more on equity sentiment. The third-quarter reporting season will now test whether companies can sustain market confidence through solid results and credible guidance. Earnings expectations continue to rise, providing an encouraging starting point, while also raising the bar for companies to deliver.

Après la hausse des taux, focus sur les bénéfices

L’indice ISM des services et la confiance des consommateurs américains mesureront la résistance de l’activité, alors que la hausse du pétrole et des coûts d’emprunt pèse sur les ménages.

L’emploi américain sera au centre de l’attention. Les chiffres de l’emploi de septembre, les données JOLTS et le rapport ADP permettront d’évaluer la dynamique des embauches, tandis que l’ISM manufacturier et la confiance des consommateurs donneront une idée de la résilience de l’activité et des dépenses.