Latest insights

Growth is slowing. Consumers are becoming more selective. Yet demand for strategic assets continues to accelerate.

Bond markets are pricing the war in Iran. Equity markets are not. That divergence has become a defining feature in the past month. The conflict has now moved beyond the initial shock phase and has entered a regime of repeated escalation, partial de-escalation and unresolved disruption.

Financial markets have entered a regime where escalation and de-escalation are no longer discrete events, but part of a repeating pattern. The war in Iran has not evolved linearly; it has oscillated, with periods of intensity followed by temporary pauses, each feeding renewed uncertainty rather than resolution.

Financial markets have entered a phase where geopolitics, commodities and monetary policy are interacting more directly than at any point in recent years.

The major US equity indices have gone nowhere. Since the late-October peak in Technology, the S&P 500 has moved sideways, masking what has in fact been a decisive rotation. Energy has rallied more than 20%, Materials close to 20%, and Consumer Staples well into double digits. Technology, by contrast, is down roughly 11% over the same period.

The year opens with a global economy that is neither stalling nor accelerating decisively, but increasingly shaped by overlapping and, at times, conflicting forces. Growth .

Global growth is slow but steady, AI is driving investment cycles, and central banks are backstopping risk. Explore our 2026 outlook: equity conviction, monetary policy shifts, and the evolving role of gold and EM debt in balanced portfolios.

Global markets enter November with better visibility than at any point this year – growth stronger than expected, inflation lower than expected and policy still broadly supportive.