Latest insights

May was defined by resilient global activity but rising macro uncertainty.

April was dominated by the interaction between resilient global activity and a renewed energy shock linked to the Middle East conflict and impaired traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

March was dominated by the Middle East shock, as the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices sharply higher and reignited inflation concerns globally.

In an environment marked by shifting correlations, macro uncertainty and episodic volatility, traditional portfolio constructions are facing increasing limitations. The diversification benefits of equities and bonds have become less reliable, prompting investors to seek new sources of return.

Global macro conditions remained broadly constructive in February, although the backdrop was increasingly shaped by policy uncertainty and a more uneven regional growth mix.

Global activity proved resilient into the new year as policy uncertainty around US trade eased from late-2025 peaks and the IMF nudged world growth forecasts modestly higher. Within the euro area, Q4 growth accelerated, but January PMIs were mixed – manufacturing stabilised while services softened, pointing to a slight loss of momentum at the start of 2026.

Growth and inflation indicators ended the year on a steadier footing.

Contrarian voices grew louder in October while Nvidia’s Jensen Huang warned that “China will win the AI race”. Nonetheless, October proved positive for hedge funds, despite brief market volatility tied to US-China trade developments.