Fixed Income

Market exuberance continued in December and through the first days of January, as risky assets posted a strong performance, once again on the back of signs of weakening inflation and the hope that central banks would strike a less hawkish tone.

After a bruising first 10 months in 2022 that saw fixed income investors suffering near-record losses in most asset classes, November offered the first true relief of the year.

Es probable que el entorno macroeconómico en 2023 siga siendo difícil para la deuda de los mercados emergentes, especialmente en la primera mitad del año.

October offered a mixed picture following a bruising first three quarters. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index was down 0.55%, driven primarily by losses in US Treasuries. However, investors in some segments of the credit markets, especially EUR HY, USD HY and to a lesser extent EUR IG did see positive performance. Most Inflation-Linked Bonds markets with the exception of the US also rallied on persistently high inflation.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly won the second round of Brazil’s election, beating incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. Initial fears that Bolsonaro wouldn’t accept the result, particularly if it was tight, have receded. Bolsonaro said that he would follow the constitution and play by the rules, while his chief of staff, acknowledged the defeat.

Es bastante inusual que un presidente de la República Francesa ataque frontalmente la política monetaria europea. Como guardián de la ortodoxia monetaria, el BCE tiene un mandato de sobra conocido: mantener la inflación en torno al 2 %, independientemente de cualquier política presupuestaria.

After registering losses in August, there was no reprieve for fixed income investors in September. All major asset classes posted negative returns, with the biggest falls coming in UK gilts.

After a respite in July, August saw negative performances across the board for almost all asset classes. In G10 rates, investors in Japan suffered the least (-0.97%), whilst the UK posted the largest losses (-6.36%), followed by EMU peripherals at –5.34%. EMU core markets fared somewhat better at -4.71%, but with a sizeable distance away from US government bonds at -2.73%. Breakevens were positive across the board, although barely so in the eurozone.

June marked another month of strong volatility, with core rates moving sharply upwards over the first half, while the second half saw some respite, albeit in a fairly turbulent environment.

Los bonos sostenibles se utilizan cada vez más para financiar proyectos medioambientales y sociales específicos, así como otras actividades sostenibles. El crecimiento del mercado de bonos sostenibles se ha visto impulsado por las emisiones de Gobiernos centrales y regionales, organizaciones supranacionales y empresas.

Las recientes subidas de la inflación —hasta niveles que no se veían hace décadas— han afectado negativamente a los rendimientos de la mayoría de las clases de activos. Las subidas de tipos se han situado entre las más pronunciadas desde hace muchas décadas.

La inflación es un fenómeno complejo. A menudo es inexorable y tiende a reforzarse cuando los agentes económicos creen que está presente. Esto dificulta las expectativas, así se han equivocado los bancos centrales en gran medida en los últimos años.

The performance of financial markets improved in May, with US markets posting a positive performance for the first time this year. Equities rebounded from their lows of May 19th and the greenback weakened while EUR/USD rebounded towards 1.07.

En julio de 2011, Jean-Claude Trichet elevó su tipo de interés de referencia al 1,50 % a pesar de la crisis de deuda de la eurozona. Había que combatir la inflación, que se acercaba peligrosamente al... 2,50 %. Lo que ocurrió después es bien conocido y ha traumatizado a muchos inversores en renta fija ante la crisis de deuda periférica y la deflación en Europa.

The performance of the fixed income asset class was impacted by geopolitics, the rise in inflation and the generally hawkish stance of central banks.

Lucia Meloni y Céline Deroux comparten sus puntos de vista sobre los cambios que debemos hacer en las empresas y en la mentalidad para alcanzar un futuro sostenible

Markets witnessed a sharp rebound over the past month (since March 7) following the sharp drawdown that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Markets moved into a risk-off mode as a result of the ongoing geopolitical turmoil that culminated in Russia’s assault and invasion of Ukraine

On the heels of Covid-19 and the oil shock, financial markets experienced a third blow yesterday (12 March) with a major confidence crisis. Speeches from US President Donald Trump and ECB President Christine Lagarde have shaken investor confidence in the ability to lead a timely and bold approach worldwide.

Policy normalisation has remained the focal point over the past several weeks, with the abandonment of negative rates across developed markets.

Policy normalisation has come to the forefront over the past few weeks, dominating the headlines and markets across the globe.

A rapidly-growing sector, Sustainable Bonds are designed to finance societal projects and/or to demonstrate sustainability objectives.

Debtholders are the major source of financing for new projects and growth

November was dominated by the Omicron variant that originated in South Africa, resulting in travel restrictions and bans across the globe.

Los inversores en renta fija siempre están muy atentos a la evolución de los tipos de interés de los bancos centrales, porque en cuanto los tipos suben, los precios de los bonos bajan