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On April 13, Iran decided to strike Israel with 300 drones and missiles following an attack on its diplomatic compound in Syria. Regional escalation and oil price are at risk. This tail risk cannot be ignored. We are closely monitoring the unfolding situation.

After peaking in the summer of 2022, inflation in the United States has fallen back sharply. Despite the fact that disinflation is now well underway, previous episodes in our series have highlighted the fact that the US economy has not yet returned to the softness of 2 % inflation...

In the United States, the disinflation process is clearly underway, as the heatmap below illustrates: the "supply chain tensions " and " freight costs " components have turned green since the second half of 2022, even if the recent tensions in the Red Sea are starting to show! In the course of 2023, commodity and producer prices followed suit.

As in the United States, the labour market is tight in the eurozone. However, the nature of the tensions is quite different.

Wage trends, reflecting tensions on the labour market, play an important role in the formation of prices, particularly for services.

On both sides of the Atlantic, inflation was undoubtedly an important theme throughout 2023.

Will the central banks of developed countries succeed in their bid to bring inflation back to their 2% target by the end of 2024... without triggering a recession? Can China still avoid deflation? After a few months of calm, aren't rising oil and agricultural prices likely to further complicate the task of central banks?

It's back-to-school time, and time for investment decisions... Will the US fall into recession?