Latest insights

European yields have returned to more historical norms following the years in the low-yield wilderness, while the German fiscal situation is reaching an inflection point.

April unfolded as a month of intense turbulence in financial markets, driven by a barrage of political manoeuvrings, economic uncertainty, and shifting monetary policies. Markets were rattled by elevated tariffs, escalating rhetoric, and retaliatory measures that prompted investors to reassess growth prospects, price in heightened recession risks, and retreat from riskier assets.

According to the Institute for Economics & Peace, there are 56 active conflicts in the world, the greatest number since the end of World War II. Increasingly complex geopolitics and ReArm Europe are keeping investors on our toes, analytically.

Navigating fixed income markets can be a daunting task for those unfamiliar with their intricacies. A multitude of factors – fundamentals, valuations and technicals – can impact a wide range of instruments – sovereigns (developed & emerging), corporates (investment grade and high yield) –, contributing to a highly complex financial landscape.

Following the US election, what will the bond landscape look like around the world in the near term and the medium term? President-elect Trump should be able to implement much of his political agenda over the next few years. We think four themes stand out: Tariffs, Regulations, Tax Cuts, and Immigration. What we don’t yet know is the timing and the magnitude of these elements.

Over the last 2 years Central Banks-driven rates hikes have deeply impacted the High Yield markets globally.

Ready for change?

On April 13, Iran decided to strike Israel with 300 drones and missiles following an attack on its diplomatic compound in Syria. Regional escalation and oil price are at risk. This tail risk cannot be ignored. We are closely monitoring the unfolding situation.