Coffee Break

Last week in a nutshell

• In the US, PCE inflation hit a 3-year high of 4.1% YoY in May while the goods trade deficit blew out to $106bn, the largest in over a year.
• The US-Iran Hormuz MoU held, with shipping resuming through the strait even as an attack on a cargo vessel and Iran's brief closure declaration shows the fragility of the current situation.
• As a result, Brent crude fell to a 4-month low near $73/bbl, gold slipped below $4,000/oz for the first time since November before partially recovering, and aluminium headed for a new steep weekly loss as Middle East smelter supply returned.
• In this context, ECB rate hike expectations for 2026 fell further, the euro zone composite PMI remained in contraction, and German business activity unexpectedly worsened.
• UK Prime minister Keir Starmer resigned, opening the path for a “coronation” of Andy Burnham.

Investment convictions

Core scenario

• Overweight Equities: With negotiations ongoing, the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and a ceasefire in place and lengthened, there’s additional room for markets to relax.
• Macro conditions set to improve. Macro conditions are already supportive in the US and could improve in the rest of the world as energy prices decline. US growth continued to rest on private domestic demand, with investment – especially AI-related capex – playing a larger role than consumption.
• Back to fundamentals. Markets will soon shift attention back to the earnings season as corporate profit growth remains the most powerful market driver so far in 2026.
• Monetary policy divergence. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish hold at his first FOMC and ruled out rate cuts in 2026. The ECB will continue to manage inflation expectations, signalling potential ongoing rate hikes. Finally, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia remain in tightening mode.

Risks

• Geopolitical fragmentation. The US–China rivalry remains entrenched, while energy supply and global trade patterns continue to shift. US President Trump’s visit to China did not produce any meaningful positive surprise.
• Fed dilemma. A strong economy and a divided FOMC could delay easing, risking a pause in liquidity support. Kevin Warsh will have to build a new policy consensus.
• Fiscal credibility. Rising issuance and political noise could test bond market confidence and trigger volatility in yields.

Cross asset strategy

• We are slightly overweight on equities via regional preferences of Emerging markets and Japan, while downgrading the US to Neutral.
• Regional allocation:
  • Downgrade United States from slight overweight to neutral. This tactical shift is primarily a result of a downgrade of the US Technology sector to Neutral. A lack of flows following Micron’s strong earnings release last week and the missing broader market reaction in the aftermath, as well as the expected lack of catalysts for the sector by the end of July (Q2 earnings season) have led us to downgrade the Technology sector. Tech-sensitive exposures carry roughly half of the weight in the broad US market.
  • Slight overweight Japan. Supportive government initiatives and a relatively prudent BoJ provide a favourable backdrop, while Japan offers concentrated exposure to AI winners across semiconductors, data centre infrastructure and automation technologies. Its world-leading franchises in robotics, factory automation and industrial equipment should position the market to benefit from the next phase of AI-driven productivity growth.
  • Neutral Europe. The region could benefit from easing energy prices but sector composition appears less exposed to dominant market themes. Fiscal spending in Germany is kicking into full gear.
  • Slight overweight Emerging markets. A selective approach within the region is warranted, but the overall strong exposure to Tech is a supportive factor. We prefer Korea, Taiwan, and China Tech to India. Valuation is attractive as the relative 12m forward PE of the MSCI Emerging Markets index reveals a significant discount to the MSCI World index.
• Factor and sector allocation:
  • We favour sectors that benefit from investment cycles, either in AI or from government spending.
  • We remain constructive on the healthcare sector and keep exposure to EU and US mid-caps and industrial stocks as they are somewhat shielded from expansionary budgets and planned deregulation.
• Government bonds:
  • We are long Core European Bonds duration. The Iran war has led to an inflation-driven repricing, as energy and supply disruptions lift inflation expectations. As consequence, ECB central bank easing expectations from the start of the year have been reversed and gone too far in our view. We focus on high quality, core-European AAA-rated sovereign bonds, which enjoy both fiscal and central bank credibility.
  • We’re slightly short US Treasuries. Strong growth dynamics, AI Capex and an inflationary impulse, as well as deficit concerns, put upward pressure on US rates.
• Credit:
  • Spread widening in European Investment Grade has been very limited, insufficient to create a broad valuation opportunity while macro uncertainty remains elevated. Investment Grade fundamentals remain solid, but sensitivity to higher rates warrants a neutral positioning. For the moment, we favour maintaining selectivity rather than holding an overweight position.
  • Neutral on Investment Grade credit in both the US and Europe. High Yield technicals are deteriorating amid outflows and increasing supply. Within High Yield we’re neutral on Europe and negative on the US.
  • Neutral on Emerging market debt via Sovereign Local Currency debt as the spread tightening trend is unfolding again and there is some leeway to see further compression ahead. Also, EM FX appears best placed to benefit from renewed potential USD weakness. In addition, the current Yield-to-Maturity of ca. 7% represents an attractive carry for this income-diversifier position.
• Alternatives:
  • We remain constructive on gold over the long term.
  • We hold precious and strategic metals, alternatives and market-neutral strategies for portfolio stability and diversification.
• Currencies:
  • The current market regime favours currencies linked to commodities such as precious metals and oil. Therefore, we have long positions in AUD, NOK and BRL.
  • There is an increased potential of a better relationship with the EU for Hungary which could lead to more stable policies and therefore a meaningful reduction of risk for foreign investors, leading us to hold a position in the Hungarian Forint.
  • We remain slightly underweight on the USD but have reduced this underweight materially on renewed geopolitical escalation.
  • We are also long JPY.

Our Positioning

Our positioning remains constructive, with an overweight in equities through the Emerging Markets and Japan, where earnings momentum remains strongest. We recently downgraded the US to Neutral. This tactical shift is primarily a result of a downgrade of the US Technology sector to Neutral. In fixed income, we favour Emerging Market debt and are constructive on high quality, core European duration. Within credit, we prefer European Investment Grade over High Yield, where risk premia remain limited. We maintain a preference for the JPY which remains historically extremely undervalued compared to the USD, selected emerging-market currencies and keep commodity-linked currencies such as AUD, NOK and BRL. Finally, gold, strategic metals and alternative strategies continue to play an important diversification role in a world of supply constraints, policy divergence and real-rate volatility.