Back to fundamentals

In an environment marked by shifting correlations, macro uncertainty and episodic volatility, traditional portfolio constructions are facing increasing limitations. The diversification benefits of equities and bonds have become less reliable, prompting investors to seek new sources of return.

Since the end of February, global credit markets have been driven by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and rising tensions across the Middle East. While geopolitical risks are not new, the intensity and speed of this episode took markets by surprise.

Since late February, global markets have been shaped by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, triggering a sharp increase in oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns.

The main focus remains the ongoing situation in the Middle East, and any signs of an agreement.

The war in Iran and signs of a diplomatic solution will remain investors top focus.

If you ask a fixed income investor to describe the credit cycle, most will readily cite its four familiar phases: Repair, Recovery, Expansion and Downturn. Knowing the terminology is straightforward. The more relevant question is: why does it matter for portfolio outcomes?

Investors will look forward to the outcome of the ongoing peace negotiations.