Coffee break

Investors will watch whether the US-Iran 60-day diplomatic window evolves into a durable peace agreement or merely a longer ceasefire.

On top of the US-Iran negotiations, investors will focus on central banks, with decisions due from the Fed under Kevin Warsh, the BoJ, the BoE and the Banco Central do Brazil, among others.

The ECB is likely to announce a rate hike in order to curb rising inflation due to increased energy prices.

The market-moving US jobs report for May is expected to show 93k payroll gains, with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%.

Investors will keep a close eye on a possible (de)escalation in Iran, similar to previous weeks.

As traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been virtually closed for 80 days, investors continue looking for signals of easing tension.

Exiting this super week of earnings release, market reaction is expected to be more driven by the evolution around the Strait of Hormuz rather than strong fundamentals, with a handful of software and cybersecurity companies reporting.

The week ahead is crucial, with many events unfolding simultaneously. Obviously, a first area of focus will continue to be the evolution of the Iran war and any signs of progress at that front.

Back to fundamentals

The main focus remains the ongoing situation in the Middle East, and any signs of an agreement.

The war in Iran and signs of a diplomatic solution will remain investors top focus.

Investors will look forward to the outcome of the ongoing peace negotiations.

As the war in Iran has entered its fourth week, investor attention will remain firmly on the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for global energy flows.

As the war in the Middle East enters its third week, investor attention will remain firmly on the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for global energy flows.

The war in the Middle East will dominate investor attention, as energy price dynamics will shape the outlook for inflation, growth and policy responses.

The State of the Polarized Union

In the US, the delayed job report will be in the spotlight. Market consensus is expecting 70k job creations and a stable unemployment rate, at 4.4%.

In the US, the job report will be in the spotlight. Market consensus is expecting 65k job creations and a stable unemployment rate, at 4.4%.

This week’s focus will be on the Fed decision and the subsequent press conference, where Jerome Powell is likely to face questions on the subpoenas and Lisa Cook’s Supreme Court hearing. Central banks in Canada and Sweden will also set rates.

The focus this week will be the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, where US President Trump is scheduled to give a special address and where ECB President Lagarde is also expected to speak.

The focus this week will be on the US CPI report for December and the release of the Fed’s Beige book ahead of the FOMC end-January.

Investor focus at the start of the year will centre on the US December job report, as recent labour market signals have been increasingly noisy.

Data releases will be sparse during the holiday season as Christmas and New Year’s Day festivities around the world are expected to cool down financial market activity.

Data-dependent investors may be well rewarded heading into Christmas, with a heavy US data slate – including the delayed jobs report and the key inflation prints.