When climate indices disagree, is the gap simply noise - or a risk that credit markets price? This paper connects academic research with investment practice to explore climate beta uncertainty in US and European corporate bonds.

AI’s infrastructure boom is drawing some of the world’s largest technology companies deeper into debt markets.

Credit markets have remained resilient, with yields still at interesting levels. But tight spreads, rising bond issuance and growing dispersion mean selectivity is becoming increasingly important.

Credit markets have spent the summer displaying an almost improbable degree of composure. Renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, disruption to tanker traffic and sharp swings in oil prices repeatedly unsettled rates markets, while the continuing war in Ukraine has ensured that geopolitical risk never receded far from view.

Credit markets have evolved. What was once considered a single asset class has become a broad, fragmented and multi-layered ecosystem spanning bonds, derivatives, private markets, currencies and capital structures—from senior secured debt to subordinated and hybrid instruments.

Why has the enthusiasm for sustainable investing lost its lustre? A lag in performance of sustainable European equities relative to the broader European equity markets over the last three years hasn’t helped. Sector rotation in equities is often blamed for this downturn in returns. .

Late-cycle credit markets rarely announce themselves clearly. Spreads remain tight, income is still available, and risky assets may continue to perform. Yet beneath this apparent stability, the balance is shifting: compensation is thinner, risks are more idiosyncratic, and the margin for error is narrowing.

Since the end of February, global credit markets have been driven by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and rising tensions across the Middle East. While geopolitical risks are not new, the intensity and speed of this episode took markets by surprise.